Bitcoin is the only real fundamental long-term (generational) investment I’ve ever made.
I was trained in portfolio math – probabilities, all weather-fund type stuff, and classical charting/TA. Prior to Bitcoin, as a professional trader, the average duration for a given trade for me was between 2-60 days.
I’ve been packing my BTC bags now for +500 days. If I loved it at x,y, and z…, and if I loved it at $64k, then I love it at $33k, and I’ll love it at $18k. I’ve never held onto a position beyond a 10-20% drawdown from peak equity, so this is new territory for me.
The reality is that I could be wrong about Bitcoin, and it may never recover. In the words of my wise friend Peter, “I’ll either be crazy rich, or crazy coffee company employee”.
Peter is correct, and while his point is to prioritize risk management, I’m not changing my thesis or my position until our existential Fed dillema that BTC so obviously solves is resolved some other way. My risk (downside) is capped at $0 Bitcoin price, and I’ve never employed leverage in my position.
A quick read of the chart. New high in Q4 ’22 above $65k, so for the bull trend to remain “technically” intact, price needs to hold the July 2021 low of $31k. Unfortunately it’s rarely so simple.
Nothing above $18k would surprise me, based on Bitcoin’s historical volatility and drawdowns of around 80% from peak.
If the bitcoin bull market is over (+11 years running), then based on current correlations between bitcoin and equities, the stock market’s bull run may be over too. That’s a whole different story and means a lot more pain for a lot more people.
The chart below shows how many people are holding for a profit vs. holding for a loss, and historically well-timed buys occured when most holders were in the red. That setup is no “in play”. This is not financial advice, but is a look at history.
BTC Price is shown in Orange and net realized profits/loss is shown in Black.
When I ask myself, “is bitcoin dead?”, the first place I visit is 99bitcoins.com, where they’ve made a list of Bitcoin Obituaries – over 400 news articles from major media outlets that called for Bitcon’s demise, as price rose from $100 to $65,000 throughout the years. Context is key.
It’s November, and Bitcoin is the best performing major asset of the year – again. Despite having gained +49% since January, it is still about 50% below it’s average annual rate of return. In simpler terms, on average, over the last 12 years, Bitcoin has doubled in price every year. In this post I dive into monetary history, recent price action, growing popularity of NFT’s, and other exciting projects in the crypto space.
One year ago, I noticed something. Search term popularity for the word “Bitcoin” started edging up for the first time in three years (via Google Trends). This turned out to be more insightful than even I expected, and was a MAJOR cycle low, with Bitcoin price still trading under $20,000 at the time. I continue to update this thread each quarter…
Crypto lives at the intersection of history, technology, and behavioral psychology. These are a few of my favorite things.
Crypto has gained popularity because people are tired of the government’s mismanagement of resources, and because now there is technology that can do the job that we outsource to governments and banks – trust – better. Bitcoin is better money because it is money backed by math and is apathetic to politics. To understand Bitcoin, start with defining what money is, understand what it used to be and how we got here. Answering those questions leads us to see what money will inevitably become. In the same way that water transitions from a solid state of ice, to a liquid state, to a gasseous state, to an ionized state, we are phase transitioning through forms of money.
For a long time, Gold was money. Then, when governments needed more money than they had gold, they took the gold component away and created the monetary system as we know it today.
Cash – a paper bill – was originally a claim for physical gold…until the government confiscated and banned all gold from households via executive order in 1933. Thereafter, cash became a claim on absolutely nothing, “backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government”. It is perhaps then just an anecdotal observation that over the last 12-18 months, as our government created more new dollars than that which had ever been created in the history of our country, I’ve visited vendors that told me they no longer accept cash. Who gets hurt when businesses don’t accept cash? Usually lower-income groups, children, and even old people.
Technology
Aside from Bitcoin as the world’s first scarce digital asset and best form of money, and aside from Ethereum, the world’s first platform for Smart Contracts that set the stage for decentralized applications (think the “app store” of crypto), several smaller projects in the crypto space have my attention.
Let me be clear, about 80% of my net-worth is in Bitcoin, including, but not limited to, my IRA and my 401k. Yet, I can’t stay away from some of these so-called “shit coins”. Let me show you why – below is a chart that shows the 6-month percentage (%) returns of several individual crypto projects.
In ascending order shown below: SHIB (+730%), SOLANA (+445%), VERASITY (+375%), POLKADOT (+116%), BITCOIN (+77%), ETHEREUM (+71%), DOGE (-25%). I personally experienced these gains in Verasity, Solana, Polkadot, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. I never bought SHIB (congrats if you realized that gain!), and I lost like a hundred bucks in DOGE – my only losing crypto “trade” of the last 3 years… so far.
I wrote extensively about Verasity back in March 2021. The two paragraphs below are taken from that post:
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Verasity, an E-Sports site and protocol taking part in the NFT-craze was awarded a patent in its drive to stop ‘fake news’. Verasity, who’s mission is to increase engagement for video creators and deliver them a boost to advertising revenues, obtained Patent #10956931 for its Proof-of-View protocol, that “ensures views recorded on video platforms are genuine – delivering accurate, secure, real, and transparent audience metrics.” Some estimates suggest that over 50% of money spent for online ads go to views that are not even seen by real people.
Up to $389 Billion per year is expected to be spent on digital advertising by 2023, and last year, 2/3 of that ad spend went to Google and Facebook. This dominance causes obvious problems. The token that governs the Verasity network, $VRA, also can be staked on the Verasity website at an annual interest rate (paid in VRA) of 36.5%. This is HUGE and reflects the disruptive nature of defi compared to traditional banking.
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In that time, Verasity has quadrupled (+400%), but there’s also another token gaining institutional attention that is tackling the same problem:
Basic Attention Token (BAT) powers a new digital advertising platform designed to fairly reward users for their attention. Advertisers get a better return on ad spend due to the protocol that ensures only real views are paid for. Verasity has had much stronger price performance, but the creation out of necessity of both BAT and VRA is a clear signal that our digital capabilities are evolving once again.
I can’t go without mentioning NFT’s. The universe of crypto-based lending, saving and trading apps, known as DeFi (decentralized finance) is breaking records. The total amount of money traders have invested reached over $165 billion, largely due to an increase in high-net worth and institutional investors like J.P Morgan and Blackrock (!). Sales on the NFT marketplace, OpenSea, hit $3 billion in August 2021 alone, up more than 10x the total of the previous month.
What is an NFT? I have a couple analogies that helped me understand what an NFT is, but in short, an NFT is a unique digital token, “art”, that through its use of the blockchain enables a layer of authenticity, traceability, and transfer that has not yet existed in the art, antiques, and memorabilia space. I was lucky enough to go to Game 2 of the World Series in Atlanta, and I was disappointed to get home and find my ticket crumpled up in my pocket. What if my ticket to the game was digital, and me having proof of ownership (via blockchain) allows me private member access to events, a community, and other benefits held only by those highest bidders who own the NFT’s/memorabilia. Trolls will be sad to learn that copy/pasting the .jpeg of the ticket won’t work because each ticket is numerically unique with its own certificate of ownership.
Most artists reach fame post-humously. Is it fair that during his or her life, an artist may sell a painting for $1,000 that eventually sells to the next person for $10 million? From now on, when artists, musicians, brands, etc., release content via NFT’s, they’ll earn royalties on all secondary sales. When you sell that $1,000 painting for $10 million, the original artist will now receive 5-10%, and 5-10% of all sales therafter (or whatever royalty they tied to it).
If and when I sell my NFTs, the original artist will receive royalties (shown below). My first purhcase was from a release by world renowned aritist Brendan Murphy’s #BoonjiProject. Each Boonji Spaceman released is unique and programmatically generated from a multitude of possible traits, including the Bust, unique formulas, backgrounds, visors and more. The rarity of each trait enables other add-on value.
I am enticed by, ok – obsessed with, the way crypto, defi, and decentralization inherently puts the power back in the hands of the people. New networks and applications – Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFT’s, Proof of Viewership, etc., are extreme examples of disruption and “cutting out the middle man”. What makes this opportunity so unique is that in all other instances of such technological or financial revolution, banks held a tremendous advantage in their ability to “get in early”, before the masses and before those businsses went public. In the crypto space – new Wild Wild West, we everyday citizens have the ability to be the underwriters of projects disrupting multi-billion dollar industries. For the first time ever we can participate in the development of a global project through equity, community engagement, and voting rights. These projects didn’t need to IPO because they were “public” from Day 1, and unlike traditional investable assets, we don’t have to stand in line behind the banks to get our slice of the pie. This is a revolution.
I just turned 31 years old. When you have a birthday over the age 25, it feels… meh. My recent birthdays have been characterized by intense periods of reflection, like “what the hell am I doing with my life?”.
One could say that, especially during a birthday month, I’m on my “search for meaning”. Having just finished Matthew McConaugheys’s memoir, Greenlights, it was time to pick out a new book. People, I picked a really good one. Not to belittle Greenlights – it was good, it was just predictable, and not good enough to write about.
Anyways, based on book recommendations from Tony Robbins, Tim Ferriss, Jordan Peterson, and those guys, I chose Man’s Search for Meaning by Dr. Viktor Frankl. Though it was first published in 1946, Dr. Frankl managed to simplify a transcending existential aspect of our time on earth – that is, our search for meaning.
Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl
I finished the 4.5 hour audiobook in a week, and then I listened to parts of it again. Like in the title of the book, I’ll use the word “man”, but the takeaways are universally insightful. Let’s jump in:
Man’s Search for Meaning is divided into three parts:
Experiences in a Concentration Camp
Logotherapy in a Nutshell
Postscript (1984): The Case for a Tragic Optimism
The meat of my review covers Part II.
Part I – Experiences in a Concentration Camp
Frankl survived two years in Auschwitz, one of the most infamous Nazi concentration camps of World War II, and he credits this with some of his perspective on therapy. To be transparent, the stories about the holocuast make me so sad that I skipped some of this part for now. What I read made me grateful for my life. Our outcomes are dependent on how we choose to navigate hard times, and humans can be incredibly resilient.
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”
Viktor Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning
Part II – Logotherapy in a Nutshell
In Part II, Logotherapy in a Nutshell, Frankl attempts a succint account of his life studies. His worldview was that humans are primarily motivated by a desire to find and make meaning in life. He referred to this as our will to meaning.
Your Meaning is Unique. One should not search for a meaning of life, nor should one ask what is the meaning of his life. Instead, one should realize that he is the one being asked that question by life itself. Life asks us for our own meaning, and I can only answer for my life – not yours or theirs.
“What matters is not the meaning of life in general, but rather the specific meaning of a person’s life at a given moment”
Viktor Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning
Existence. Live as if you are already living for the second time, and as if you had acted the first time as wrongly as you are about to act in this life now. This maxim invites us to realize our sense of responsibility by imagining that the present can be the past, and that the past may be ammended.
This reminds me of an exercise that I’ve been putting off – writing my own euology. The Eulogy exercise: imagine yourself as a fly on the wall at your own funeral. Your loved ones are sharing stories about you, recounting your life. What will they say? He was a good man? What else? Furthermore, am I living today to become the person I hope they will describe me as at my funeral? Dark, but functional. I like it. Back to the book.
Tension, not homeostasis, is a prerequisite of mental health. This tension he describes is the gap between what one already is and what one is to become. It is only when we challenge man with a potential meaning to fulfill that we evoke him from latency. Frankl argues that many cases of neurosis, addiction, and/or trauma are caused by existential crises, or what he called “the existential vaccuum”.
The existential vaccuum. Sometimes frustrations around lack of meaning may be compensated for by the more sinister “will to power”. This is usually exhibited as a “will to money” or “will to pleasure”, and simply stated, is using money, sex, and/or power to feel a sense of achievement. The existential vaccum is also largely characterized by boredom.
All meaning for humans comes from pointing ourselves outward, to serving causes or loving people. True self-actualization is impossible without self-transcendence; the more one forgets himself by giving himself, the more he is. Thus, as life goes on, the meaning of our life changes, but it never ceases to be.
We can discover meaning in life in three different ways.
Creating a work or doing a deed
Experiencing something or encountering someone
The attitude we take toward unavoidable suffering
The first one is self-explanatory – you complete something (a work or good deed) and you feel accomplished or rewarded. The second, experiencing something, such as nature, culture, beauty, or encountering another human being through love.
The meaning of love. Love is the only way to grasp another human being at the inner-most core of one’s personality. By love, one is able to see the essential traits and features in another person. Love also sees potential in another person and supports the loved one in reaching that potential.
The third way to find meaning in life is by suffering. One of the most fundamental truths in life is that we all will face our share of hardship, difficulty and suffering. We are sometimes confronted with hopeless situations, but what matters is our uniquely human ability to turn tragedy into triumph. If faced with an incurable disease like cancer, we shift the focus to changing ourselves.
Frankl describes a patient whos wife passed away. He asked the patient, “What would [your wife] feel today if you were the one who died first instead?”. The patient replied that her pain would have been unbearable. Then, described with more elogance than I can do justice for here, the patient comes to an understanding that his suffering has meaning – he carries a burden that his wife doesn’t have to carry. Bittersweet enlightenment.
As a man, but also for all humans, sometimes we are required to take action that even our loved ones may disagree with but that we believe are in our best collective interest. In my experience, this burden can be accomodated by suffering, and through that suffering, meaning. Meaning provides the capability to cope with suffering.
When suffering fills my life, what do I choose to do?
“He who has a ‘why’ to live for can bear almost any ‘how'”.
– Freidrick Neitsche
A Practical Solution
Whereas psychoanalysis (i.e. Freud) is backward-looking and self-indulgent, logotherapy is a practical solution about constructing a future for yourself.
Paradoxical intention refers to a technique used in logotherapy that attempts to counter the phenomenon of hyper-intention. Hyper-intention is reflected in scenarios where we focus so much on something, that it is forever out of our grasp. For example, fear brings about that which one is afraid of. Asking someone to say “cheese” before a photo will result in a less than genuine smile. Over-thinking an orgasm in the bedroom will make it increasingly elusive.
The solution to hyper-intention is to embrace it, speak openly and even make light of it. This allows you to gain control over it. Frankl discusses the case of a patient who sweats heavily when speaking publicly. Following Dr. Frankl’s suggestion, the patient starts his next speech by jokingly asking the audience if they thought he could sweat more this time than he did last time. The patient claimed his sweat-problem went away, though I heard his speech was rather dry…
Another common example is “writer’s block”. Next time you find yourself staring at a blank page, say, “I’m just going to see how bad I can write.”. Watch the ink spill.
“Don’t aim at success. The more you aim at it, the more you are going to miss it. For success, like happiness, cannot be pursued; it must ensue, and it only does so as the unintended side-effect of a dedication to a cause greater than oneself or as the by-product of one’s surrender to a person other than oneself.
Viktor Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning
Part III – Postscript (1984): The Case for a Tragic Optimism
Tragic optimism allows us to:
Turn suffering into achievement
Use guilt to change oneself for the better
By acknowledging the transitory nature of life, to act responsibly
Life’s “tragic triad”, pain, guilt, and death, may lead to meaninglessness, but they don’t have to. Acknowledging these truths lightheartedly and without dwelling is useful. Being optimistic – saying, “Yes to Life” in spite of its tragedies – is only possible when life has meaning.
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My question for Dr. Frankl would be around a seeming contradiction – how do I seek meaning without crossing into that hyper-intention over-focused zone, and thus, never finding it? Sometimes this is the cycle of thinking I find myself in.
I also find Dr. Frankl’s thoughts individualistic, man’s search for only his own meaning, and wonder if and how he views Man’s collective meaning, especially given Frankl’s experience in World War II.
Overall, I thoroughly enjoyed Man’s Search for Meaning, and I will revisit the book and this book review regularly. This is only my second book review. My first, of Atomic Habits by James Clear, can be read here.
Today, the Viktor Frankl Institute maintains the life work of Viktor Frankl and provides information about Logotherapy and Existential Analysis.
Last week we heard about big banks dipping their toe into crypto, patents awarded to unique E-sports and video-streaming protocols, and more merchants allowing bitcoin payments, like Tesla. This week in crypto was no different, with headlines from Goldman Sachs, JPM Chase, Morgan Stanley, Visa, Microsoft, and others. One of the coins mentioned in my last post, Verasity (VRA), saw its price rise +100% between then and now, but everyone is a genius in a bull market.
The price of Bitcoin rose +9.9% this week, to a high just above $60,000. Bitcoin’s price rose +28% through the month of March 2021, bringing its gain since January to +109%. Ethereum, up +188% YTD, rose +24% this week, making a new all-time high above $2,000 (I bought more ETH). Both Bitcoin and Ethereum outperformed every major asset class, including stocks, bonds, a “balanced” portfolio, and the U.S. Dollar for the week and month (and year), again.
Big Banks
In the seven years from 2008 to 2015, the Fed’s balance sheet grew from basically nothing to about $3.5 trillion. Fast forward to April, 2021… in the one year since the start of the COVID19 lockdowns, from March 2020 through today, the Fed has added another $3.5 trillion to their balance sheet.
Wall Street dissed bitcoin for years while simultaneously building the infrastructure to support it behind closed doors. This week Goldman Sachs announced that it will begin offering Bitcoin and other digital assets to private wealth management clients by Q2 ’21.
BREAKING: $GS will begin offering #bitcoin and other digital assets related investments to its private wealth management clients in the second quarter, @hugh_son reports: pic.twitter.com/kgStpd9lFm
According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bitcoin’s will continue to attract institutional interest. JPM analysts cited $7 billion of inflows into Bitcoin funds and $20 billion of outflows from Gold funds, and placed a long-term price target of $130,000, “if the volatility can converge with that of gold.”
Big Business
From January – March 2021, blockchain focused startups raised $2.6 billion, and that’s more than they raised in all of 2020 ($2.3 billion). The leading startups include BlockFi, Dapper Labs, and crypto wallet provider Blockchain.com. I use BlockFi myself for staking my ethereum, and I’ve earned an annualized interest rate of 20% so far, paid in ETH (which made a new all-time high this weekend).
Last week I mentioned Microsoft’s new identity platform on the Bitcoin network. In what sounds more like a storyline from the Matrix (one of my favorite movies) than real life news, this week we learned that Microsft filed for a patent for, “generating cryptocurrency by monitoring people’s brain activity and other personal biometric data.” What? Included in the patent filing is the example of, “A brain wave or body heat emitted from the user when performing tasks provided by an information provider, such as viewing an advertisement or using certain internet services…”. So, things are getting weird. Moving on…
The Matrix (1999) “Machines harvesting human energy”
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Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, announced that it will IPO on April 14, 2021, after its original date in March was pushed back. Things will be interesting for Coinbase as the IRS decides how to handle crypto taxes. The company was valued at about $90 billion in its final week of trading on Nasdaq’s private market. In addition to its exchange business, Coinbase operates a digital custody business for institutional (big money) clients.
Paypal has started allowing U.S. consumers to use cryptocurrency to pay at millions of its online merchants globally in a move that could significantly boost the use of digital assets in everyday commerce (Reuters).
In another sign of growing acceptance of digital currencies by the mainstream financial industry, Visaannounced that it will allow the use of crypto on its payment network. Visa has been hinting at a move into crypto for years now. In 2018, I noticed one of their job listings on Indeed seeking someone with experience in bitcoin and blockchain. See Visa CEO talk bitcoin in post #16.
What did I miss this week in crypto? Leave a reply below or sign up to gain an edge on investing in the future.
*Nothing here is investment advice.* I hold positions in mentioned securities.* Do your own research.* Investing in cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds, or anything else entails significant risk of loss.*
The price of a basket of cryptocurrencies finished the week down (6.7%), after falling as much as (14%) through mid-week. If history is any indication, then what an opportunity this week was. At time of writing, Bitcoin/USD is trading at $56,288. This represents a 1-day change of +0.8%, a 1-week change of +3.57%, a 1-month change of +10.46%, a 3-month change of +75%, a 6-month change of +205%, and a 1-year change of +514%. So on, and so forth.
This week in Crypto: The NBA, Microsoft, Billionaire FOMO, Web 3.0
The wealthiest man in the world, Elon Musk, sent a series of tweets announcing that Tesla cars can now be paid for with Bitcoin. More notably, Tesla is operating bitcoin nodes and, “bitcoin paid to Tesla will be retained as Bitcoin”, and not converted back to dollars. Back in January, Tesla announced that it purchased $1.2 billion in bitcoin to hold on its balance sheet, joining the growing list of companies holding BTC as treasury. Bonus for the traders/savvy investors out there: Elon Musk is really good at timing his Bitcoin tweets around options expirations.
Traditional investment powerhouse Fidelity ($4.3 Trillion AUM), has filed with the SEC to manage a Bitcoin ETF, “Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust”. Fidelity’s entry to the space further legitimizes Bitcoin and puts pressure on the SEC to approve an ETF for US investors.
An institutional New Zealand Retirement fund also reported an ~$18 million Bitcoin purchase on the grounds that it has similarities to gold. The traditional retirement fund started buying in October, when Bitcoin was trading around $10,000. “Opportunities present themselves”, the chief investment officer said.
Norwegian Billionaire Oystein Spetalen, who less than one month ago was a prominent critic of Bitcoin (he publicly called it a “nonsense currency” and suggested it be banned), humbly announced a new Bitcoin investment, adding, “when the facts change, I change. I had been wrong.” Maybe it’s just FOMO. “I can’t bear to see Rokke make money and not me”, Spetalen said, referring to industrial business magnate and fellow Norwegian billionare Kjell Inge Rokke’s launching of a crypto firm earlier this month.
Miami, FL – American Airlines Arena, home to the NBA’s Miami Heat, will be renamed FTX Arena after its newest sponsor, cryptocurrency exchange FTX. The entire deal is worth $135 million and comes on the heels of Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s push to make Bitcoin a part of the city’s economic future.
Microsoft ($MSFT) Launches Decentralized Identity System on Bitcoin. This stands out to me because I’ve worked on creating decentralized identities for farmers in rural areas that don’t have or don’t want a formal (national) identity. Microsoft deployed its first version of the “ION” platform atop the Bitcoin network. This is cutting-edge and something that I see people sleeping on. Self-sovereign identities are the future and will most obviously be used in health passports.
Billionaire Investor Mark Cuban and Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell both stated in the last week in separate interviews that Bitcoin is more of a store of value that should be considered as digital gold as opposed to a digital currency. Cuban also shared that he’s investing in several crypto assets, but only has “enough skin in the game to allow [him] to learn about them.” It reminds him of the early internet days, and for those who may have forgotten, that’s how Cuban hit his big lick.
Verasity, an E-Sports site and protocol taking part in the NFT-craze was awarded a patent in its drive to stop ‘fake news’. Verasity, who’s mission is to increase engagement for video creators and deliver them a boost to advertising revenues, obtained Patent #10956931 for its Proof-of-View protocol, that “ensures views recorded on video platforms are genuine – delivering accurate, secure, real, and transparent audience metrics.” Some estimates suggest that over 50% of money spent for online ads go to views that are not even seen by real people.
Up to $389 Billion per year is expected to be spent on digital advertising by 2023, and last year, 2/3 of that ad spend went to Google and Facebook. This dominance causes obvious problems. The token that governs the Verasity network, $VRA, also can be staked on the Verasity website at an annual interest rate (paid in VRA) of 36.5%. This is HUGE and reflects the disruptive nature of defi compared to traditional banking.
Another video streaming platform and protocol that has recently been awarded patents for its’ blockchain technology, Theta Network, received a +$100 million stake from institutional investors who claim that, “Theta’s global decentralized edge network will be a key component for Web 3.0 video and data delivery.”
Theta claims that its network’s peer-to-peer data relay makes it cheaper for any platform that moves large amounts of data (like videos) by utilizing users’ excess computing power instead of letting it go to waste. Theta’s advisors include Youtube co-founder and chief technology officer Steven Chen and Twitch co-founder Justin Kan, and it’s growing partnerships include Lionsgate film studios, Google, Sony Europe, and Samsung.
What’d I miss? Reply below or send me a message if you have some fresh crypto news. Looking forward to the days ahead!
The $1.9 Trillion COVID-19 Relief Package was passed in the Senate this week and will be considered on the floor of the House tomorrow, March 10, 2021 at 9 a.m. ET. This $1.9 Trillion in aid is in addition to the $2.3 Trillion in COVID-relief passed by Congress last year. Much got cancelled in 2020, but “Trillions” got normalized.
If and when this new relief bill passes the House, it will then go to the President to sign into law. That may occur on the same day or weeks later. Former President Trump signed the March 2020 CARES Act one day after it passed Congress, but it took several days for the December 2020 bill to be processed and presented for signature due to… politics.
I’ll run through what’s included in the newest COVID-19 relief bill below. Feel free to use this handy stimulus calculator to see if you qualify.
Click the link above to see if you get a stimulus check
$1.9 Trillion COVID-19 Relief Package
In order for the bill to pass in the Senate, given the current makeup of the Senate, changes were made from the previous bill proposal to increase the likelihood of its passing. In other words, this version of the bill that the House will see tomorrow is more conservative. The new COVID-19 Relief Package includes the below changes to eligibility for stimulus checks, tax ememptions, unemployment benefits, and more.
$410 billion of the $1.9 trillion will go towards stimulus checks. Individuals with income under $80k ($160k for couples) will qualify for $1,400 payments. This compares to the previous cutoff of $100k/$200k.
Adult dependents are now included, as well as children and families with mixed status citizenship
Federal unempoyment checks to extend to September 6, 2021 at a $300 weekly rate. The house initially proposed $400 weekly ending in August 2021.
Up to $10,200 in unemployment payments received in 2020 will be tax-emempt (today I learned that unemployment payments are taxable)
Expanded child tax credits to allow families to claim up to $3,600 per year for kids under 6 and $3,000 per year for kids age 6-17. The plan also expands the benefit to lower-income families who otherwise wouldn’t receive the credit
Families can get back as much as half of the childcare expenses for children under age 13, up to $4,000 for a single child and $8,000 for +2 children
No student debt forgiveness, but the Senate added a provision that would make any forgiven student loan in the future tax-free
President Biden says he’s “prepared to write off $10,000 [student debt per borrower], but not $50,000.” $50k student debt write-off was proposed by Democrats.
No $15 minimum wage increase, as Senate ruled the wage hike was illegal under the rules of the federal budget
$160 billion set aside for nationwide vaccine distribution
Includes $46 billion for testing and tracing programs, $5.2 billion for vaccine research, development, and manufacturing, $7.7 billion to hire public health care workers
Extending eviction and foreclosure bans until September 30, 2021 and providing $30 billion in rental assistance for renters and small landlords, especially for low and moderate income households
$128.6 billion to help K-12 schools reopen
$25 billion in aid to restaurants and other eat/drink establishments
$350 billion in state and local aid
California – $26 billion of general funding for state and $15 billion for local governments
New York – $12.7 billion for state, $10.6 billion for local governments, and $5.6 billion for New York City and its counties
Los Angeles city will get $1.2 billion and Los Angeles County will get $2 billion
Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts referred to the $1,400 stimulus checks included in the $1.9 Trillion economic relief package as “a down payment“, in his latest push for ongoing payments throughout the pandemic. “We will not stop until we pass at least a $15 federal minimum wage,” he added.
Twitter users unite over #stimmy checks
Several Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alex Padilla (CA), Corey Booker (VT), Ron Wyden (OR) and others have been pushing for $2,000 checks per month since the start of the pandemic. After all, what everyday American wouldn’t support that?
I’m just thankful that we have the best and brightest doing the number crunching that objectively justifies a U.S. money supply balooning at a rate we’ve ever seen before, and that no politics might be involved whatsoever.
From 2019 to 2020, the totally supply of US Money (M2) grew 25%, the highest amount on record by a long-shot, and it looks like 2021 will be another year for the record books.
Another measure (TMS/Rothbard-Salerno) shows M2 much higher. This measure differs from traditional M2 measure in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits, traveler’s checks, and retail money funds). More technical than I have time to get right now.
